Losing our Marbles in the New Century? The Great Rebalancing in Historical Perspective

Great attention is now being paid to global imbalances, the growing U.S. current account deficit financed by growing surpluses in the rest of the world. How can the issue be understood in a more historical perspective? We seek a meaningful comparison between the two eras of globalization: "then" (the period 1870 to 1913) and "now" (the period since the 1970s). We look at the two hegemons in each era: Britain then, and the United States now. And adducing historical data to match what we know from the contemporary record, we proceed in the tradition of New Comparative Economic History to see what lessons the past might have for the present. We consider two of the most controversial and pressing questions in the current debate. First, are current imbalances being sustained, at least in part, by return differentials? And if so, is this reassuring? Second, how will adjustment take place? Will it be a hard or soft landing? Pessimistically, we find no historical evidence that return differentials last forever, even for hegemons. Optimistically, we find that adjustments to imbalances in the past have generally been smooth, even under a regime as hard as the gold standard.

Antecedents of Perceived Coach Interpersonal Behaviors: The Coaching Environment and Coach Psychological Well- and Ill-Being

Embedded in the self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) framework, we obtained self-report data from 418 paid and voluntary coaches from a variety of sports and competitive levels with the aim of exploring potential antecedents of coaches’ perceived autonomy supportive and controlling behaviors. Controlling for socially desirable responses, structural equation modeling revealed that greater job security and opportunities for professional development, and lower work–life conflict were associated with psychological need satisfaction, which, in turn, was related to an adaptive process of psychological well-being and perceived autonomy support toward athletes. In contrast, higher work–life conflict and fewer opportunities for development were associated with a distinct maladaptive process of thwarted psychological needs, psychological ill-being, and perceived controlling interpersonal behavior. The results highlight how the coaching context may impact upon coaches’ psychological health and their interpersonal behavior toward athletes. Moreover, evidence is provided for the independence of adaptive and maladaptive processes within the self-determination theory paradig

Motivational Predictors of Physical Education Students’ Effort, Exercise Intentions, and Leisure-Time Physical Activity: A Multilevel Linear Growth Analysis

Grounded in self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 2000), the current study explored whether physical education (PE) students’ psychological needs and their motivational regulations toward PE predicted mean differences and changes in effort in PE, exercise intentions, and leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) over the course of one UK school trimester. One hundred and seventy-eight students (69% male) aged between 11 and 16 years completed a multisection questionnaire at the beginning, middle, and end of a school trimester. Multilevel growth models revealed that students’ perceived competence and self-determined regulations were the most consistent predictors of the outcome variables at the within- and between-person levels. The results of this work add to the extant SDT-based literature by examining change in PE students’ motivational regulations and psychological needs, as well as underscoring the importance of disaggregating within- and between-student effects

Detecting soil moisture impacts on convective initiation in Europe

Feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are important for understanding hydroclimatic variability in many regions. However, much uncertainty remains about how land surface fluxes influence the initiation of deep convection locally. Whilst some studies consider only atmospheric and soil profiles, in a one-dimensional sense, others have argued that horizontal variability in fluxes plays an important role in convective triggering, via mesoscale circulations. This paper presents the first comprehensive observational analysis over Europe linking convective initiation to soil moisture, based on satellite observations of cloud-top and land surface temperature, and soil moisture. The results show that convective initiations are favoured on the downwind side of dry surfaces, close to wetter areas. The signal is clearest following dry periods and under light winds, consistent with forcing by a mesoscale circulation. Overall, the detected signal in Europe is weaker than in previous Sahelian analysis, but key spatial characteristics are essentially the same

Vote Dilution and the Census Undercount: A State-by-State Remedy

This Note argues that groups seeking to correct underrepresentation caused by the differential undercount do not have standing to sue the Secretary of Commerce but that they can sue their state governments in an effort to force them to use the best population data available in the construction of congressional districts. Part I details the deeply rooted character of the differential undercount, describes statistical means that could have been employed to adjust the 1990 census, and demonstrates that the adjusted count surpasses the official census as an accurate representation of the true population. Part II examines recent litigation that has attempted to force the Secretary of Commerce to reverse his decision not to adjust the 1990 census and concludes that these efforts have failed because the plaintiffs suffered no injury directly related to the Secretary\u27s decision and therefore lacked standing to challenge it. Part III argues that plaintiffs can prevail in actions against their state governments by challenging their state\u27s use of unadjusted figures for congressional redistricting. The Supreme Court has required states to use the best population data available when drawing congressional districts. Because the unadjusted census no longer represents the best population data available for most Americans, states must use adjusted data

A Multi-Tiered Genetic Algorithm for Data Mining and Hypothesis Refinement

While there are many approaches to data mining, it seems that there is a hole in the ability to make use of the advantages of multiple techniques. There are many methods that use rigid heuristics and guidelines in constructing rules for data, and are thus limited in their ability to describe patterns. Genetic algorithms provide a more flexible approach, and yet the genetic algorithms that have been employed don't capitalize on the fact that data models have two levels: individual rules and the overall data model. This dissertation introduces a multi-tiered genetic algorithm capable of evolving individual rules and the data model at the same time. The multi-tiered genetic algorithm also provides a means for taking advantage of the strengths of the more rigid methods by using their output as input to the genetic algorithm. Most genetic algorithms use a single "roulette wheel" approach. As such, they are only able to select either good data models or good rules, but are incapable of selecting for both simultaneously. With the additional roulette wheel of the multi-tiered genetic algorithm, the fitness of both rules and data models can be evaluated, enabling the algorithm to select good rules from good data models. This also more closely emulates how genes are passed from parents to children in actual biology. Consequently, this technique strengthens the "genetics" of genetic algorithms. For ease of discussion, the multi-tiered genetic algorithm has been named "Arcanum." This technique was tested on thirteen data sets obtained from The University of California Irvine Knowledge Discovery in Databases Archive. Results for these same data sets were gathered for GAssist, another genetic algorithm designed for data mining, and J4.8, the WEKA implementation of C4.5. While both of the other techniques outperformed Arcanum overall, it was able to provide comparable or better results for 5 of the 13 data sets, indicating that the algorithm can be used for data mining, although it needs improvement. The second stage of testing was on the ability to take results from a previous algorithm and perform refinement on the data model. Initially, Arcanum was used to refine its own data models. Of the six data models used for hypothesis refinement, Arcanum was able to improve upon 3 of them. Next, results from the LEM2 algorithm were used as input to Arcanum. Of the three data models used from LEM2, Arcanum was able to improve upon all three data models by sacrificing accuracy in order to improve coverage, resulting in a better data model overall. The last phase of hypothesis refinement was performed upon C4.5. It required several attempts, each using different parameters, but Arcanum was finally able to make a slight improvement to the C4.5 data model. From the experimental results, Arcanum was shown to yield results comparable to GAssist and C4.5 on some of the data sets. It was also able to take data models from three different techniques and improve upon them. While there is certainly room for improvement of the multi-tiered genetic algorithm described in this dissertation, the experimental evidence supports the claims that it can perform both data mining and hypothesis refinement of data models from other data mining techniques

Energy Dependence of Scattering Ground State Polar Molecules

We explore the total cross section of ground state polar molecules in an electric field at various energies, focusing on RbCs and RbK. An external electric field polarizes the molecules and induces strong dipolar interactions leading to non-zero partial waves contributing to the scattering even as the collision energy goes to zero. This results in the need to compute scattering problems with many different values of total M to converge the total cross section. An accurate and efficient approximate total cross section is introduced and used to study the low field temperature dependence. To understand the scattering of the polar molecules we compare a semi-classical cross section with quantum unitarity limit. This comparison leads to the ability to characterize the scattering based on the value of the electric field and the collision energy.Comment: Accepted PRA, 10 pages, 5 figure